 | Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security Subjects: Nuclear weapons -- Iran; Iran -- Military policy; Iran -- Politics and government -- 1997–; Iran -- Foreign relations -- 1997–; United States -- Relations -- Iran; United States -- Military policy; Deterrence (Strategy); Security International; Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons has been a longstanding priority for U.S. administrations, but there is growing realization that Iranian nuclear capabilities may be inevitable. Davis and Pfaltzgraff, both of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, begin with the assumption that Iran will get the bomb in the near future, and sketch out likely scenarios that would inform American responses. They rely on three models: A "defensive Iran," playing by similar rules as established nuclear states; an "aggressive Iran," emboldened to take a proactive role in regional conflicts; and an "unstable Iran," where authority over weapons of mass destruction becomes unclear. The authors warn that America's "[l]ack of familiarity with Iran's value structures or with the perspectives of key leaders presents a daunting problem," and they explore a variety of frightening scenarios, including an Iranian military proliferating weapons to other countries. Employing dry, analytic language, the text encompasses so many unknowns that many passages could apply equally well to Pakistan or even North Korea. The policy recommendations, beginning with the truism that "[d]eterring a nuclear Iran will be challenging and difficult," are, as a result, vague and formulaic. (Dec.) (c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved. Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc. She is a member of the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel, where she has cochaired several task forces, including one on Iran. She also serves on U.S. Europe Command's Senior Advisory Group. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. is president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., which he cofounded in 1976, and the Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. |
